College  (and other clubs) - Submissions, Admissions, Omissions: "We're off to see the Wizard..."

That time of year again: For college applicants, it's the time they start finding out their fate, whether all the tears and toil pay off, or whether they get a letter encouraging reapplication after gaining some additional experiences ('gap year'?), get 'wait listed' (sort of a purgatory status), or get an outright rejection letter (not too many colleges send such straightforward "You shouldn't even think about re-applying..." as they seem, at least at first glance, to be protecting the aspirants self-esteem...more on this later). And even among the legion of people who never think about applying to college, but have applied instead to a club membership of some sort (even those philanthropic in nature..."why wouldn't they accept everyone, they need all the help they can get, don't they?"), or otherwise just simply applied for a job at a retailer, ALL of us can relate to wanting information as to just what those in charge are looking for, that will either increase my chances, just short of guaranteeing, that I will become "Welcome in!". Sure would be nice. But, instead, as I caution teens and their parents as they all risk ulcers selecting all those AP/honors courses, extracurricular activities, volunteer opportunities, and otherwise do everything humanly possible to hedge their bets, there's not only a lack of guarantees whether they indeed gain entry or are turned down, but they'll never actually know the true reasons for either state of affairs...for the true answers remain in the "Land of Oz", held by the man behind the curtain, "The great and powerful Wizard!" 

Follow the yellow brick road: Once again, whether you are aspiring to get to a certain college (even if you have legacy on your side), are trying to gain entry into a club, or landing that job for which you lost sleep redoing your resume and paid a coach to rehearse interviews, on the way there, you'll feel like you're on the 'yellow brick road', where just when you think you're gaining on the target, there's another hoop to jump through, a haunted forest (perhaps represented by the dreaded HR department and all their weird lingo, that's double, triple speak for...?), or a detour in one form or another ("we're holding your application for additional information..."..."we'll get back to you..."..."...applications are temporarily on hold..."). It's hard to get straight answers these days, ain't it?...And, even when you are given feedback, even in the case of landing that job, there is lingering doubt about the true reasons why/why not...

Case(s) in point: I only point to two compelling cases that are vivid examples: #1 -- a high school student with whom I am well acquainted and literally saw all his credentials he assembled for applying to get into the National Honor Society--including a 4.0 GPA (resulting from many honors and AP classes), proficiency in music, and a junior black belt in martial arts...only to be turned down for a "lack of leadership" !!! After which he gained entry into the honors college of a highly ranked university and then medical school...this, while being acutely aware of other, less qualified students (i.e., lesser in GPA and no stellar achievements otherwise) who were welcome into the NHS. In another more recent case (again, only two among a plethora others that readily come to mind to both you and I), a high school senior with a 4.2 GPA, stellar athlete, and lots of other extracurricular involvement/community service, PLUS legacy (i.e., alumni  parents), was spurned by two colleges, where subsequently we both became aware of less 'qualified' students were welcome in -- "what gives?!"..."what were they looking for?"..."should I pursue them and ask?"...Good questions, all. The problem is, due to a history of colleges finding themselves in high level litigation (all the way up to the Supreme Court), they have become masters at providing the most generic, vague, and otherwise oblique descriptors of what they are looking for in "qualified" candidates (again, this cuts across colleges, clubs, and other organizations)...all in the service of protecting themselves while confusing prospective students/applicants. 

Technically speaking, prediction: The empirical evidence behind admissions is found in what's referred to in statistics as "multiple linear regression" (which we had to learn initially without the aid of computers, ugh!), which identifies and evaluates the relative efficacy of a set of variables in predicting another (in this case, for example, combining GPA, standardized test scores, and "other data" to predict the level of success at college X, Y, or Z)...sounds straightforward and generally is..."other data" is one place the complete transparency gets a bit foggy...

The bottom line, transparency -- turning back the curtain: Like in "Wizard of Oz", when Dorothy's dog, Toto, sneaks behind the curtain and reveals that the "great and powerful Oz" is a rather obsequious, diminutive old dude who is taking advantage of special effects (like how so many hide behind technology and social media these days)...the simple truth is that, in the case of most colleges, they want to be on the 'demand' supply of the supply and demand formula, meaning they want more highly qualified candidates than they have room for, in which case they can afford to turn back what appear to be eminently qualified high schoolers, knowing there's plenty waiting in the wings...no 'buyers regret' here. In addition, they (college admissions officers acting as agents for the college board of regents or governing body) seek to build a broad alumni across the country that will help sustain their brand (and hopefully contribute to their endowments!). Beyond that, the college board and admissions departments hold their cards as close to their vest as possible, while making the aspiring students work their fannies off, not knowing exactly what they need to do in order to gain entry. Recently, of course, we have become aware of some rather nefarious, duplicitous arrangements between admissions folk and some high rollers that got exposed (like Toto exposing the wizard), which ended up with some jail time (if you can call it that) for some bad actors (literally), among others. 

The Sequel: "Through the Looking Glass"...Alice again enters a fantastical world, this time by climbing through a mirror ...there she finds that, like a reflection, everything is reversed, including logic. It's what a lot of college students have been experiencing on campus the last several years, if they are 'lucky' enough to get admitted, way before COVID-19. Be careful what you wish for, "Caveat Emptor". A whole other area of discussion, for a post forming in my head...